Content Type: Professional Development Event

The video begins at 4:15.

Abstract: The California High-Speed Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecasting Model is a state-of-the-practice transportation model designed to portray what future conditions might look like in California with and without a high-speed train. The model was developed by Cambridge Systematics, Inc., and took roughly two years to complete. The resulting ridership and revenue forecasts provided, and continue to provide, sound information for planning decisions for high-speed rail in California. This presentation briefly describes the underlying model that was developed to generate the ridership and revenue forecasts along with summaries of ridership forecasts from published reports.

Content Type: Professional Development Event

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Abstract: Existing regional travel forecasting systems are not typically set up to forecast usage of bicycle infrastructure and are insensitive to bicyclists' route preferences in general. We collected revealed preference, GPS data on 162 bicyclists over the course of several days and coded the resulting trips to a highly detailed bicycle network model. We then use these data to estimate bicyclist route choice models. As part of this research, we developed a sophisticated choice set generation algorithm based on multiple permutations of labeled path attributes, which seems to out-perform comparable implementations of other route choice set generation algorithms. The model was formulated as a Path-Size Logit model to account for overlapping route alternatives. The estimation results show compelling intuitive elasticities for route choice attributes, including the effects of distance and delay; avoiding high-volumes of vehicular traffic, stops and turns, and elevation gain; and preferences for certain bike infrastructure types, particularly at bridge crossings and off-street paths. Estimation results also support segmentation by commute versus non-commute trip types, but are less clear when it comes to gender. The final model will be implemented as part of the regional travel forecasting system for Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.
Content Type: Professional Development Event

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Abstract: We propose to decompose residential self-selection by understanding its formation process. We take a life course perspective and postulate that locations experienced early in life have a lasting effect on our locational preferences in life. In other words, what was experienced spatially is a key factor contributing to our residential self-selection and our preferences in residential locations are formed long before our own self-selection begins.  We further hypothesize that prior locational influence interacts with period effect such that the same location experienced in different periods may have distinct effects.  Using an empirically collected dataset in the New York Metropolitan Region, we estimated a series of models to test these hypotheses. The results demonstrate that prior locational influence precedes residential self-selection. Furthermore, we show a variety-seeking behavioral pattern resulted from locations experienced during adolescence.

Content Type: Professional Development Event

Kristie Gladhill, Transportation Modeler, on Modeling Safety and Urban Form.

The video begins at 1:57.

Content Type: Professional Development Event

The video starts at 0:58.

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Abstract: Walking and bicycling are being promoted as transportation options that can increase the livability and sustainability of communities, but the automobile remains the dominant mode of transportation in all United States metropolitan regions. In order to change travel behavior, researchers and practitioners need a greater understanding of the mode choice decision process, especially for walking and bicycling.

This presentation will summarize dissertation research on factors associated with walking and bicycling for routine travel purposes, such as shopping. More than 1,000 retail pharmacy store customers were surveyed in 20 San Francisco Bay Area shopping districts in fall 2009, and 26 follow-up interviews were conducted in spring and summer 2010. Mixed logit models showed that walking was associated with shorter travel distances, higher population densities, more street tree canopy coverage, and greater enjoyment of walking. Bicycling was associated with shorter travel distances, more bicycle facilities, more bicycle parking, and greater enjoyment of bicycling. Respondents were more likely to drive when they perceived a high risk of crime, but automobile use was discouraged by higher employment...

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Content Type: Professional Development Event

The video begins at 1:47.

Abstract: In transportation planning and engineering, market segments or groups of individuals with varying attitudes and travel behavior are often identified in order to define a set of policies and strategies targeted at each segment. Examples include residential location choice studies, electric vehicle adoption and the marketing of public transit options. Defining market segments is common in the marketing literature, typically based on observed socioeconomic characteristics, such as gender and income. However, in addition to these characteristics, travelers may also be segmented based on variations in their observed travel and activity patterns. The activity-based approach to travel demand analysis acknowledges the need to analyze the travel patterns of individuals, conceptualized as a trip chain or tour, as opposed to individual trip segments. This has implications for identifying markets segments based on travel patterns which needs to distinguish between the sequencing and timing of travel choices and activities, in addition to the actual travel choices and activities. One approach that holds promise is pattern recognition theory which has wide applications in image analysis, speech recognition and physiological signal processing. In this study, pattern recognition methods are applied to observed daily travel and activity patterns from Oregon to identify travel market...

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Content Type: Professional Development Event

The video begins at 1:11.

Abstract: Metro's Transportation Research and Modeling Services Program's (TRMS) is responsible for the development, maintenance, and application of travel demand models for application in long-range planning efforts in the Portland metropolitan region. Representation of traffic -- both vehicular and transit -- plays an integral role in the travel demand modeling process. Complex software is required to assign vehicles and transit users to transportation networks to determine viable options available to travelers, costs associated with those options, and sets of routes by which travelers might navigate their trips. TRMS's current static assignment model has traditionally sufficed for use with Metro's four-step travel demand model. However, static assignments have well documented limitations that preclude the ability of the analyst to answer complex policy questions, especially those related to green house gas emissions, congestion, and transportation network reliability. In addition, static assignments cannot fulfill a need for small duration travel time increments required by the next generation activity-based models. The shortcomings of the static assignment necessitates TRMS's development of regional dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models. The resolution of these models allows for continuous modeling of traffic over an analysis period, which allows the analyst to capture...

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Content Type: Professional Development Event

The video begins at 3:30.

Abstract: We all use abstractions of reality to help understand the world around us, synthesize knowledge, and to predict the consequences of our actions. These range from ad hoc mental models to highly complex mathematical creations. In this discussion we'll examine the motivations for building formal models, with particular focus on the types of models that will be explored in this course. Several different modeling approaches will be compared, along with the strengths and limitations of each. Some important questions that builders and consumers of models should ask will be covered, as well as ideas for building more useful and informative models. A discussion on how to judge the validity of a model will round out the discussion.

Speaker Bio: Rick Donnelly has over 25 years of experience in the modeling and simulation of transportation systems, from the urban to national level. His current interests include agent-based modeling of freight and logistics, integrated land use-transportation models, and dynamic network modeling. Rick leads the travel modeling and simulation practice at Parsons Brinckerhoff, an international civil and transportation engineering consultancy. He is also a senior fellow at the University of Melbourne, where he earned his doctorate in engineering, and a visiting scholar at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Content Type: Professional Development Event

The video begins at 0:16.

Abstract: This seminar will introduce travel models to non-modelers. It will build off the previous seminar, which introduced models in general, and discuss two primary approaches to travel modeling – four-step aggregate models and activity-based disaggregate models. The inputs, basic model methodology, and outputs of each approach will be discussed. An example of each approach will be discussed as well. The goal of the seminar is to introduce key concepts, basic differences between the two approaches, and discuss the benefits and shortcomings of each approach, with a focus on application.

Speaker Bio: Ben Stabler is a supervising planner with Parsons Brinckerhoff who specializes in planning modeling systems development. Ben has worked locally, as well as internationally, on numerous four-step and activity-based travel demand and land use modeling systems and has presented at various conferences, including TRB, the TRB Planning Applications Conference, and the Innovations in Travel Modeling conference. He is a certified GIS Professional and has worked in travel forecasting for Oregon DOT as well as PTV – the makers of VISUM and VISSIM. Ben is a member of the TRB Urban Transportation Data and Information Systems Committee (ABJ30) and is an active member of the Oregon Modeling Users Group.

Content Type: Professional Development Event

The video begins at 0:43.

Abstract: Integrated land use transportation models simulate the behavior of the spatial economic system and the interactions between the transportation system and the rest of the economic system. The essential elements of these models are explicit treatment of space in economic production and consumption behavior, both the space that is the physical areas that contain production processes and the space that separates different production locations and gives rise to the demand for travel and transport. They put travel within an economic context, and thus facilitate simulation of the impacts of transportation policy and planning actions and transportation conditions on the wider economic system. As such, integrated models can be used address complex policy questions that more limited transportation models cannot address, or cannot address well.

This seminar will set out the basic scope and form of integrated models and discusses several of the key advantages they provide for planning. Experiences gained in the practical applications of the Oregon SWIM and Sacramento MEPLAN and PECAS integrated models will be described. These experiences will be used to illustrate the added benefits arising with such models in terms of more efficient land use forecasting, more complete analysis of cumulative and indirect impacts and more holistic consideration of policy in general, more...

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