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Estimating and Forecasting E-commerce Last Mile Delivery VMT in Urban Areas: A novel Data-Driven Approach
Principal Investigator:
Miguel Andres Figliozzi, Portland State University
Summary:
This is an advanced and applied research effort addressing the rapid growth of e-commerce, which contributes significantly to commercial vehicle Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) in urban areas. E-commerce sales have increased substantially, accounting for 16% of total retail sales in 2024, yet there is a clear research gap regarding the accurate estimation of associated VMT. This research collaboratio...
This is an advanced and applied research effort addressing the rapid growth of e-commerce, which contributes significantly to commercial vehicle Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) in urban areas. E-commerce sales have increased substantially, accounting for 16% of total retail sales in 2024, yet there is a clear research gap regarding the accurate estimation of associated VMT. This research collaboration utilizes datasets regarding household e-commerce demand and delivery driver routing behaviors which have not been previously used to estimate VMT. The methodology involves three key stages: new methodologies to create realistic synthetic e-commerce demand, defining and analyzing logistical "touchpoints" (facilities and handover locations), and formulating vehicle routing and distribution algorithms. The project will produce VMT estimations, forecasts, and a modeling framework, providing building blocks for large-scale modeling and policy recommendations for urban logistics systems.
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Project Details
| Project Type: | Research |
|---|---|
| Project Status: | In Progress |
| End Date: | May 31, 2026 |